Sports Betting Breakdown
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After New Jersey's Supreme Court victory in May 2018, any state that wishes can legalize sports betting.
The plus (+) and minus (-) in sports betting can refer to either the point spread or betting odds. In terms of the spread, the ' - ' always refers to the favorite and the ' + ' always refers to the underdog. For example, you can bet the Dallas Cowboys as a -7 point favorite to beat the Green Bay Packers or the Packers as a +7 point underdog. Get the Sports Betting sports stories that matter. From breaking news to in-depth analysis, get expert coverage from the best newsroom in sports, all personally delivered and ad-free. Get the Sports Betting sports stories that matter. From breaking news to in-depth analysis, get expert coverage from the best newsroom in sports, all personally delivered and ad-free. BETTING BREAKDOWN. Doug Fitz, @fitzdoug, Systemplays.com. Dolphins (0-0) at Patriots (0-0) Time: 10 a.m. Line/total: Patriots -7, 41½ Analysis: There are too many question marks with the.
At the same time various state lawmakers are considering sports betting legislation, Congress is too. Senators Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and now-retired Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, co-introduced comprehensive sports betting legislation at the end of 2018. On Sept. 27, 2018 the House Judiciary Committee held a formal hearing on the topic.
The dual track of proposals -- state and federal -- have increased in frequency since the start of 2017.
To measure the change in the landscape, we ranked all 50 states and the District of Columbia in terms of how likely it is for each jurisdiction to offer full-scale legal sports betting. A brief synopsis for the active states is included, with updates to follow.
Last updated on November 3, 2020.
Already there
1. Nevada
No longer the only state to permit a wide variety of legal sports betting, Nevada is a mature market that has existed for decades. Given its long history in successfully offering regulated sports wagering, many states might look to Nevada for best practices.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 223
Population: 3,034,392 (2,246,259 21+)
2. Delaware
On June 5, 2018, Delaware moved to offer single-game betting on a number of different sports at three casinos in the state. Expanded sports wagering options could take place at additional locations or online. Delaware's authorization of what Gov. John Carney described as 'a full-scale sports gaming operation' happened less than a month after the Supreme Court ruled that the federal law restricting single-game betting to Nevada was unconstitutional.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person
Notable prohibitions: No betting on games involving in-state college teams
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 3
Population: 967,171 (726,161 21+)
3. New Jersey
On June 11, 2018, Gov. Phil Murphy signed the sports betting bill that had passed the previous week. A William Hill sportsbook at Monmouth Park took the first bets on Thursday, June 14 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Gov. Murphy was the first customer in line. The Borgata in Atlantic City booked sports bets 30 minutes later. Other sportsbooks in New Jersey opened soon thereafter. For example, FanDuel's first sportsbook at the Meadowlands opened its doors on July 14.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: No betting on games involving in-state college teams and collegiate events held within the state
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 9
Population: 8,908,520 (6,634,683 21+)
4. Mississippi
Two casinos owned by MGM Resorts booked their first sports bets in Mississippi on Aug. 1, 2018. Mississippi enacted a new law in 2017 that allowed for sports betting pending a favorable decision by the Supreme Court. In June 2018, the Mississippi Gaming Commission adopted implementing regulations that require all betting to take place in person, with mobile wagering to be considered later.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person
Notable prohibitions: None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 29
Population: 2,986,530 (2,153,795 21+)
5. West Virginia
On Aug. 30, 2018, West Virginia became the fifth state to offer legal and regulated sports betting when the Hollywood Casino -- a sportsbook owned by Penn National -- opened its doors. The move came six months after the West Virginia legislature passed a new bill with the West Virginia Lottery Commission serving as the chief regulator.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 5
Population: 1,805,832 (1,375,788 21+)
6. New Mexico
On Oct. 16, 2018, the Santa Ana Star Casino & Hotel booked its first sports bet in partnership with Nevada-based USBookmaking. Although New Mexico has not passed any new sports betting legislation since the Supreme Court's decision, the move by the Santa Ana Star Casino & Hotel was made via a gaming compact with the state. According to Nedra Darling, spokeswoman at the Department of the Interior's Office of Indian Affairs -- the federal agency in Washington, DC that oversees tribal gaming compacts -- the New Mexico compacts permit 'any or all forms of Class III Gaming,' a category in the federal regulations that specifically includes '[a]ny sports betting and pari-mutuel wagering.'
Type of wagering permitted: In-person
Notable prohibitions: No betting on games involving in-state college teams
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 32
Population: 2,095,428 (1,529,540 21+)
7. Pennsylvania
The Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course booked the first legal sports bets in Pennsylvania in mid-November 2018. The move came just over a year after Gov. Tom Wolf signed a new sports betting bill as part of a broad legislation push that included online poker and DFS. The October 2017 bill became effective after the Supreme Court's May 2018 ruling upending the federal ban on single-game betting outside of Nevada.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 12
Population: 12,807,060 (9,645,705 21+)
8. Rhode Island
The Twin River Casino in Lincoln opened its doors for legal sports betting on Nov. 26, 2018. The move came five months after Gov. Gina Raimondo signed the state budget, which included language allowing sports betting. Only two locations would be allowed to offer sports betting under the law, with the state's lottery providing regulatory oversight. In early 2019, the law was tweaked to provide for mobile betting.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: No betting on games involving in-state college teams
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 2
Population: 1,057,315 (800,838 21+)
9. Arkansas
On July 1, 2019, the Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort booked the first legal sports bets in Arkansas. Two other retail locations opened sportsbooks in the subsequent months. Sports betting is regulated by the Arkansas Racing Commission.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person
Notable prohibitions: No betting on games involving in-state college teams
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 3
Population: 3,013,825 (2,191,256 21+)
10. New York
On July 16, 2019, the first legal sports bets were placed in New York. J. Gary Pretlow -- a New York lawmaker and chair of the state's racing and wagering committee -- was among the first to place a wager at the Rivers Casino in Schenectady. The opening of a legal sportsbook came six years after New York passed a law to allow sports betting at four on-site locations, all in upstate New York. After lying dormant for years, the law was revived after the Supreme Court ruling in 2018 and the issuance of regulations earlier this year. The current law does not allow for mobile wagering.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person
Notable prohibitions: No betting on games involving in-state college teams
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 28
Population: 19,542,209 (14,724,807 21+)
11. Iowa
Legal sports betting arrived in Iowa on Aug. 15, with multiple operators all opening their doors to customers on the first day. The move came three months after Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds signed into a law a comprehensive bill to legalize sports betting in the Hawkeye State. Operators must pay a $45,000 licensing fee and there is a 6.75 percent tax on revenue. The new law permits mobile wagering. Betting on college sports is permitted, but certain kinds of in-game prop bets involving college games are banned. The new law bestows the Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission with authority to regulate sports betting.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: No prop betting on in-state college athletics
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 23
Population: 3,156,145 (2,286,374 21+)
12. Oregon
Legal sports betting returned to Oregon on Aug. 27 after a long hiatus, with the first bets booked on-site at the Chinook Winds Casino Resort in Lincoln City. Oregon is one of a small number of states that already had a law on the books permitting some forms of sports betting, so the resumption of wagering did not require the legislature to pass any new law or have the governor amend an existing tribal-state compact. In mid-October, mobile sports betting arrived in Oregon too, with the state-run lottery overseeing the launch of a new website and app.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: None at the Chinook Winds Casino Resort, but sportsbook operated by the Oregon Lottery does not permit betting on games involving in-state colleges
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 10
Population: 4,190,713 (3,167,912 21+)
13. Indiana
Legal sports betting opened up at a number of locations in Indiana on Sept. 1. The Indiana Gaming Commission oversees all sports betting regulations and has issued licenses to operators across the state. Wagering on both college and pro sports is permitted, but betting on esports and high school sports is banned. Indiana's new law allows for both mobile and in-person wagering. Regulations permit sports leagues or colleges to request 'to utilize a geofence to prohibit wagers at the location of a particular sporting event.'
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: No prop betting on in-state college athletics
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 14
Population: 6,691,878 (4,842,337 21+)
14. New Hampshire
Governor Chris Sununo placed the ceremonial first legal sports wager -- on the New England Patriots -- in New Hampshire on Dec. 30, 2019. The state's lottery is in charge of regulatory of regulatory oversight. Both retail and mobile sports betting will be permitted on a wide variety of sports, although no betting on New Hampshire's in-state colleges is allowed.
Type of wagering permitted: Mobile
Notable prohibitions: No betting on in-state colleges
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 0
Population: 1,356,458 (1,042,882 21+)
15. Illinois
Legal sports betting arrived in Illinois on March 9, 2020. The move came less than a year after the Illinois legislature passed a broad gaming bill that allowed for both online and in-person sports betting. With Governor J.B. Pritzker's signature, the new law also provided for betting on-location at venues such as Wrigley Field. Operators and certain data providers are required to obtain a license under the new law.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: No wagering on minor leagues or Illinois college teams
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 10
Population: 12,741,080 (9,391,158 21+)
16. Michigan
Legal sports betting in Michigan commenced on March 11, 2020, with two Detroit-area casinos launching on the same day. The move came less than three months after Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed the 'Lawful Sports Betting Act' into law. The new law provides for wagering on a wide variety of sports, including college contests.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 27
Population: 9.995,915 (7,428,72721+)
17. Montana
Legal sports betting arrived in Montana in March 2020. The move came after Governor Steve Bullock formally signed into law a 28-page bill that brought sports wagering to Big Sky country via the state's lottery. Governor Bullock cited the Montana Lottery's 'proven track record of responsibility and integrity' when signing the bill.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person
Notable prohibitions: None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 13
Population: 1,062,305 (793,151 21+)
18. Colorado
May 1, 2020 marked the launch of legal sports betting in Colorado, with multiple operators allowing residents to open accounts online and place wagers. The move came less than six months after Colorado voters -- by a narrow margin -- approved a ballot measure that would provide 'for the regulation of sports betting through licensed casinos.' Both mobile and retail sports betting are permitted. Tax revenue from sports betting will help fund various state water projects.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions: None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019): 35
Population: 5,695,564 (4,210,663.00 21+)
19. Washington, D.C.
In June 2020, the D.C. Lottery launched its 'GameBetDC' platform allowing consumers 'to wager while in the District on major sports worldwide' via computer or mobile device. Sports betting in nation's capital followed the passage of the Sports Wagering Lottery Amendment Act of 2018 and a Congressional review period during which time Congress did not formally object. The Office of Lottery and Gaming provides regulatory oversight of all sports wagering in D.C.
Type of wagering permitted: In-person and mobile
Notable prohibitions:No betting on games involving colleges located in D.C.
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019):None
Population: 705,749
20. Tennessee
Regulated sports wagering -- all online -- launched on November 1, 2020 in Tennessee with four licensed operators offering a wide variety of options. The 'Tennessee Sports Gaming Act' permits statewide mobile sports betting without any brick-and-mortar anchor. As such, there are no in-person retail sports betting locations in the state. Subject to an exception, Tennessee's new law requires all licensed operators to 'exclusively use official league data for purposes of live betting.'
Type of wagering permitted: Mobile only
Notable prohibitions:None
Number of casinos (as of Dec. 31, 2019):None
Population: 6,829,174
On-deck circle
21. North Carolina
On July 26, 2019, Governor Roy Cooper signed into a law a bill to 'allow sports and horse race wagering on tribal lands,' with such betting designated as a 'Class III' gaming activity under the state compact. The new law permits betting on both college and professional sports, but all bettors must place their wagers in-person at one of two retail locations.
22. Washington
Governor Jay Inslee signed Washington's sports betting bill into law on March 25, 2020. The new law permits sports wagering at Class III tribal casinos in the state. Mobile sports wagering is not allowed statewide, but is permitted when on-site at a licensed tribal casino. Betting on an 'esports competition or event' is allowed, but the new law bans wagering on games involving in-state colleges or minor league professional events. The new bill delegates regulatory oversight to the Washington State Gambling Commission.
23. Virginia
After some back-and-forth between Governor Ralph Northam and the legislature, legalized sports wagering was approved in the Commonwealth of Virginia in April 2020. Online betting is allowed, but wagering is not permitted on Virginia-based college sports or certain youth sports.
24. Maryland
In November 2020, Maryland voters approved 'sports and events betting for the primary purpose of raising revenue for education' by about a 2-1 margin. A regulatory framework must be created by Maryland lawmakers before any sports wagering takes place. The Maryland referendum would potentially allow for both in-person and mobile sports betting throughout the state.
25. South Dakota
On November 3, 2020, voters in South Dakota approved a ballot measure permitting 'sports wagering in Deadwood.' Other tribal locations in South Dakota could see the arrival of regulated sports betting too. State lawmakers must now establish a regulatory apparatus and tax rate for legalized sports wagering.
26. Louisiana
In November 2020, voters in the vast majority of Louisiana's 64 parishes approved a ballot measure permitting 'sports wagering activities and operations.' As a result, regulated sports wagering could come to New Orleans and certain other cities as early as 2021. Lawmakers will be tasked with setting up a regulatory scheme during an upcoming state legislative session.
Moving toward legalization
All of these states have seen some degree of legislative activity towards the legalization of sports betting the past few years.
27. Oklahoma
In April 2020, two federally-recognized tribes reached agreement with Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt on new gaming compacts that include sports betting. On June 8, 2020, Governor Stitt announced that the Department of the Interior had approved the compacts, paving the way for sports betting to start in Oklahoma as soon as the 'compacts are published in the Federal Register.' A bipartisan group of state lawmakers, along with Oklahoma's attorney general, have expressed opposition to the expansion of sports betting in Oklahoma and the prospect of legalized sports wagering remains uncertain.
28. Maine
On the last day of the state's 2019 legislative session -- June 19 -- Maine lawmakers passed 'An Act to Ensure Proper Oversight of Sports Betting in the State.' Shortly thereafter, the governor vetoed the bill. The legislature could re-introduce the bill later.
29. Nebraska
On November 3, 2020, Nebraska voters approved certain amendments to its state constitution legalizing 'all games of chance.' If the new constitutional amendments are construed to include wagering on sporting events, legalized sports betting could arrive in Nebraska upon the establishment of certain regulations.
Sports Betting Odds
30. Connecticut
31. Kentucky
32. Massachusetts
33. Minnesota
34. Missouri
35. Kansas
36. South Carolina
37. California
39. Ohio
40. Arizona
41. Hawaii
42. Texas
43. Georgia
44. Vermont
45. Alabama
46. Florida
47. Alaska
48. Wyoming
No legalization activity ... yet
49-50. Idaho and Wisconsin
These states have not had any publicly-announced bills devoted to sports betting legalization.
Unlikely
51. Utah
Utah's anti-gambling stance is written into the state's constitution. Any change to existing state policy toward gambling would be a massive departure from decades of opposition to any form of gambling, including lottery tickets, table games and sports betting.
Most people who want to place bets on sports are fans to begin with. It isn’t unheard of for a gambler to place some sports bets, especially during big games like the Super Bowl or the NCAA basketball Final Four, but for the most part, sports bettors are sports fans looking to use their knowledge of a game or of a game’s players to earn a little extra cash. Being a fan of a particular sport, a team, a college or professional squad—these are all precursors to placing sports bet. Sports betting is also a way for a fan to get in on the action of the game, with something more than self-respect at stake.
All gambling is mathematics, even games of chance. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage. For many games, like penny slots or poorly placed roulette bets, are so bad that smart bettors earn their advantage by avoiding them altogether. In sports betting, the math is more complicated. Depending on your favorite sport, you may need to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings, and injuries with the same fervor other connoisseurs reserve for fancy winces.
So how difficult is sports betting math? The math behind placing a winning bet is fairly complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is rather straightforward. If you collect on 52.4% of your bets, you’ll break even. We’ll have more details on that number later, including why it takes more than 50% wins to break even, but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind it.
Sports Betting Basics
The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to make up an example. Let’s say you and your buddy walk into a casino, each with $200 burning a hole in your pocket. There’s a big game on tonight, the Cowboys and the Redskins, so you wander into the sportsbook to check up on the latest news about the game. While you’re sitting there, you see the wagering board, with some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:
- 428 Cowboys +175
- 429 Redskins -4 -200 38
Some of this is easy enough to read. The Redskins -4 means the Redskins are favored to win and must do so by at least 5 points for a bet on the ‘Skins to pay out. The next number (-200) is the moneyline, in this case the Redskins are a 2/1 favorite. The last number (38) is the total, the over/under of the expected number of points scored in the game.
More on Placing Sports Bets
Look at that over/under number, in this case 38. If you or your buddy thinks this is going to be a particularly high or low scoring game, based on your knowledge of the team’s offenses and defenses, or information about a hurt player or bad playing conditions, you can place a wager on the total of points scored.
So how is a guy supposed to know how to literally lay down a sports bet? You need to know three things:
#1 – the type of bet you want to make
#2 – the number of the corresponding team you have chosen and
#3 – the amount you wish to wager
Knowing all that beforehand gives the ticket writer the details he needs to write the ticket without having to bend over backwards to process your bet.
Tipping and Sports Betting
We haven’t even gotten to the meat of the sports math yet, and we’re already talking about tipping the staff behind the window? Yep. Here’s why.
If you place two $100 bets, and you win, you’ll collect $440. You should consider leaving a tip around five percent of your winnings. Yes, that’s a $22 tip, but you just made a huge win, and surely you can spring for a twenty-spot for the guy who helped you win it. If you tip around the five percent mark regularly, when you win, you’re way more likely to get free drinks, which is about all you’re going to get comp-wise at the sportsbook.
So, back to the basic math of sports betting. You and your buddy, after much deliberation, decide to each place a $100 bet on your favorite team. What now?
To bet on the Redskins using the point spread, your bet is called “laying the points.” For your bet to pay off, the ‘Skins have to win by five or more to cover the spread. Remember, if the ‘Skins win by exactly four, the game is a push, and both sides recoup their bet. Another alternative is called “taking the points” with the Cowboys. That means the Cowboys have to lose by three or less for your bet to win, or if the Cowboys win outright. So you and your buddy go up to place your $100 bet, and you find out that the standard straight bet at any bookie pays 11/10. That means you have to bet $110 if you want to win $100. You and your buddy pay the bookie $110 and sit down with drinks to watch your bets come in.
These are deceptively simple bets. Deceptively because they make it look like the outcome of the football game is like the outcome of picking marbles out of a bag. Put one black marble and two white marbles in a bag, pull one out at random, and there’s your football game. After all, the odds are the same: 2/1 for white.
But we, as sports fans, know that the mathematics of a sporting event is much more complex. Sports bettors deeply involved in their hobby will subscribe to weather bulletins from major cities that take part in their sport, making huge wagering decisions based on a few mph of wind in one direction or another. Then there’s the unknown—does a player get hurt in the first quarter? Does weather become a factor? Is a particular player “in the zone?”
How Do Bookies Make a Profit?
Sports Betting Sites
Just as we finish ruminating on the concept of the difficult math at play in the background of major sporting events, we’re going to turn right back towards the simpler side of sports betting. Bookies make a profit because of vigorish. What’s vigorish?
Look at the above example again. You and your buddy each paid $10 to the bookie to place your bet. That’s what the standard 11/10 odds in sports betting are all about. You bet the Cowboys and your buddy bet the Redskins, a total of $220 bet. The sportsbook has to pay back $210 to the winner, leaving a nice $10 profit no matter what happens on the football field. That $10 built-in profit is called the vigorish, and it’s the final monkey wrench in the gears of sports betting.
Obviously, sportsbooks are going to take more than two bets on any game, but this example is for simplicity’s sake. Looking at the total number of bets on different games over the course of a week and adjusting the moneyline and other numbers is another way the bookie makes a profit. Adjusting the odds a tiny percentage point in either direction will affect the balance of beats and make the book more likely to turn a profit no matter what.
Sports Betting Breakdown Odds
Essentially, a bookie is a person who holds on to money from bettors then pays them if they win and keeps their money if they don’t. That’s what the job is boiled down to its essence.
When a bookie sets odds for games, he will build what bookies call an “over round” into his set of odds. Another slang term used for this formula is “the juice.” For the sake of simplicity, let’s look at a boxing match where both contenders are equally talented, of equal stature, etc. Since they both have an equal chance of winning, a casual bet may be even money. You put $20 on one guy; your friend puts $20 on the other. Whichever fighter wins awards the bettor with the total of $40.
Bookies don’t offer even money like friends in a casual betting situation. In the above example, with two evenly matched boxers, a smart bookie will offer 5/6 odds for each. That way, a $10 winning bet would only return $8.30 plus your stake. What does this do for the bookmaker? He can float an equal amount of money on both fighters, winning no matter which fighter actually wins. If they take $1,000 worth of bets on one boxer and $1,000 on the other, the bookie would take in $1,000 but only have to pay out $830, for a guaranteed $170 profit regardless of the outcome.
Bookies look at the weight of their books all the time and adjust odds and other factors to make sure their books balance. Though it isn’t possible to completely balance a book, bookies that go too far out on one side run the risk of losing money, and losing money in gambling is the fastest way to find yourself in another industry. All of these factors are why bookies generally root for the underdog—too many favorites winning in a sport with a short season (such as the NFL) can cause a bookmaker to lose money, while a bunch of upsets (like you generally see in college football) is a guaranteed profit for the bookmaker.
The short answer here is that bookies making money has nothing at all to do with your betting. It is almost unheard of for a single customer to be allowed to place enough bets to sink a single book all on his own. High rollers in sports betting get special privileges in terms of their maximum bet size, but these privileges often change with the bettor’s luck—maximums get raised after the bettor sees big losses and decreased (sharply) when the bettor starts to get lucky.
In short, a sportsbook’s profits aren’t necessarily impacted directly by the way an individual bet is called. Unlike casino games or slot machines, where it’s you against the house, sports bettors fuel the bookmaker’s business and only rarely is an individual bettor betting against the bookie.
Sports Betting Odds
Remember at the beginning when we talked about the magic number necessary to guarantee a break-even week in sports betting? If you read enough about sports betting, you’ll hear this number repeated often: 52.4%. If a bettor can win 52.4% of his bets, he’ll break even. Where does that number come from?
When betting the spread, you get odds of -110. Sometimes, sportsbooks will offer a -105 line as a promotion or to welcome new business. But for the most part, if you’re betting the spread, you’re getting -110.
We draw that 52.4% break even number right out of the odds. -110 is equivalent to 11/10. That means if you bet 21 games, you’d have to win eleven of them and lose ten of them to break completely even. Even at -105, you’d still have to win an astounding 51.2% of the time just to break even.
If you don’t trust the basic math behind this break-even principle, look at another real-world example. Let’s say you get really into sports betting after your Cowboys cream the Redskins and you go home with a nice fat wallet. You then bet on the next 10 Cowboys games, winning six times and losing four times.
That 60% betting record (with the odds of -110 that is traditional for against the spread bets in football) will leave you with a profit of $160. Think about it—your $600 profit from your 6 winning bets minus the $440 you lost on losing bets leaves $160. It took you $1,100 to win $160, meaning you have to bet $6.87 to win $1 on average. So you see the small differences between a 52.4% winning rate and a 60% winning rate—inside those 7.3 percentage points lies hundreds of dollars in profit.
Now imagine instead that you lost one of those six winning bets, leaving you with a 50% betting record. You spent a total of $1,100, won $500, and lost $550. That means overall your 50% record drained your wallet by $50. That’s where the vigorish will get you. Not even winning half the time is good enough to break even in sports betting.
Professional Sports Bettors
Believe it or not, some people really do bet on sports for a living. Maybe they work part time at a sportsbook or in some other marginal job in the casino industry, but there is a group of gamblers who bet on sports for their life’s work. With all the math swirling around in our heads after the last bit of the article, it’s hard to imagine anyone wanting to do this for a living.
If you know that a 52.4% record will mean you break even, the simplest way to turn sports betting into a career is to bet enough so that a 53% winning record will bring in the kind of money you want to make.
Another example. After your successful Cowboys experiment, you decide to invest $10,000 in sports gambling over the first four months of the following football season. That $10,000 is set aside to win or lose in sportsbooks.
You plan on betting on 160 games during your investment period. You dream of a 55% winning record because your win-loss with a 55% winning record would give you an 88-72 record. That’s an expected profit of +8.8 units. How did we get to that number? To calculate your units, subtract the total of your losses (multiplied by 1.1 to include the vig) from your wins and you’ll get your unit profit.
Placing $460 bets on each of these games, a number pulled from some quick and dirty math about how much you could afford to bet in a single week’s NFL play without blowing your bankroll, would result in a $4,048 profit if you maintain that 55% winning record. Turning $10,000 into $14,048 in just four months is an investment return of 40.48%. I dare you to ask your bank for that kind of return on your savings account.
But that’s all assuming you can pick the winner 55% of the time. Do your research, look into the records of professional sports gamblers. 55%, while not impossible, would place you among the elite sports bettors in the country, if not the world.
Professional sports bettors have to worry about variance more than any other type of gambler. Working against the forces of variance means managing your bankroll over the course of the season to avoid the negative possibilities that could totally empty your wagering account. Professional sports bettors have the time and resources necessary to calculate these variances, and there are even a few pieces of software out there that can help you figure out your ideal bet in the face of negative variance. But the bottom line is that professional sports bettors would dream of having a 55% winning record, simply because it guarantees you’re beating the house.
Pro bettors make their money on bets that sportsbooks offer that give them even the slightest betting advantage. The key to becoming a profitable sports bettor is being able to find advantages, opportunities where the line a book is offering is vulnerable.
This is why many long-term sports bettors are math freaks. Good sports bettors understand statistics, particularly what are called inferential statistics, though any higher math will help when it comes time to place a bet.
Here is what a professional baseball bettor might do in his head. After looking over statistics from MLB (kept religiously by all sorts of bloggers, data archives, and magazines) between the years 2000-2010, he notices a particular statistic pop out. For example: when the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss, that team wins 59% of the time. Good sports bettors can do this sort of math in their head or very quickly on paper. From that bit of information comes a new betting theory—look for game situations that mirror the above example and bet on them. That means he’ll only bet games where the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss. Does he just jump in and start betting based on this back of the napkin math? No way. More statistical analysis is required—he may find that this was a fluke for that particular decade and isn’t a trustworthy statistics, or he may find an even more advantageous bet based on his original theory.
Pro sports bettors also keep near-obsessive records of their bets. Obviously, no edge in sports betting lasts longer than a single game. Taking proper records will also help you test theories, like the above one about left-handed pitchers and losses. Without taking good records, no sports bettor’s bankroll will last very long.
What Is a Good Record for Sports Bettors
So, at the end of the day, what could you call a “good” record for a sports bettor? Most casual gamblers looking into sports betting see a pro advertising his 1100-900 record and shake their head a little. How could such an abysmal record be something to be proud of? That’s a 55% winning percentage, and it indicates to those in the know that this bettor is actually turning a profit placing bets on sports.
A good record for a sports bettor is any record equal to or larger than 52.4%, because that number or anything higher means you’re not losing money. A 53% winning record, while not impressive on paper, means you’re actually beating the sportsbook and putting money back in your pocket. Ask your friends that play the slots or play online poker how often they end up putting money back in their pocket.
Sports Betting Revenue Breakdown
A -110 wager, standard for spread bets in the NFL, gives the house a built-in advantage of 10%. It means that even if you do win, and you line up to collect your $100, some sucker behind you just spent $10 to hand the casino $100.
Sports Betting Breakdown Betting
A good record for sports bettors is any record that ensures they at least break-even. If you bet 16 games this NFL season and you won 9 and lost 7, you probably made money. And taking money away from a casino is always something to be proud of.
Sports Betting Breakdown Ufc
Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy
Sports Betting Break Even Video:
Sports Betting Stocks
In the video above I go over the break even % for sports betting, and we take a look at the difference between hitting 52% and 53%. I also quickly show the amounts of profits you can expect if you can hit 55% consistently.